Short answer
Almost never. Harbin is too far south and too light-polluted. For aurora chances in China, go to Mohe in the far north, and even there it is rare.
Why not Harbin
Harbin sits at about 45.8°N, far south of the auroral oval. Even during a strong geomagnetic storm, the lights are usually too faint and too low on the horizon to see through the city's light pollution. Most 'aurora in Harbin' photos are either long-exposure composites or taken elsewhere.
The cold, clear winter skies are good for stargazing, but not for auroras. The when to go hub explains the winter weather.
Where to go instead
Mohe, in Heilongjiang's far north, is China's best aurora bet, but sightings are rare and require dark skies and solar activity. The 7-day Heilongjiang route does not include it; the distances are too great for a short trip.
For reliable auroras, go to Iceland, Norway, Finland, or Canada. Harbin is a winter city, not an aurora destination.
What to do instead
Enjoy the ice festival, the snow, and the city's winter atmosphere. The night activities question covers the evening options.
If you want dark skies, the countryside outside Harbin is better than the city, but still not aurora territory. The side trips hub lists the options.
Related questions
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